@InProceedings{AlmeidaMoCāSoCePe:2002:UnMoUr,
               author = "Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de and Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira 
                         and C{\^a}mara, Gilberto and Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira and 
                         Cerqueira, Gustavo Coutinho and Pennachin, C{\'a}ssio Lopes",
          affiliation = "{Divis{\~a}o de Sensoriamento Remoto} and {Divis{\~a}o de 
                         Processamento de Imagens} and {Divis{\~a}o de Processamento de 
                         Imagens}",
                title = "Understanding and Modelling Urban Land Use Dynamics to Achieve 
                         Sustainability",
                 year = "2002",
         organization = "3rd International Human Dimensions Workshop on Urbanization and 
                         the Transition to Sustainability",
             keywords = "urban modelling, land use dynamics, cellular automata, 
                         geocomputation, town planning.",
             abstract = "This scientific paper, part of a PhD Thesis currently under 
                         execution at the Division for Image Processing of the Brazilian 
                         National Institute for Space Research (DPI INPE), is committed 
                         with building up a methodological guideline for modelling urban 
                         land use dynamics. A medium-size town in the west of S{\~a}o 
                         Paulo State, Bauru, was adopted as case study. Its urban structure 
                         was converted into a 100 x 100 (m) resolution grid, and transition 
                         probabilities were calculated for each grid cell by means of the 
                         weights of evidence statistical method and upon basis mainly of 
                         the information related to the technical and social infrastructure 
                         of the town. The probabilities therefrom obtained fed a cellular 
                         automaton (CA) simulation model DINAMICA- conceived by the Centre 
                         for Remote Sensing of the Federal University of Minas Gerais 
                         (CSR-UFMG), based on a multiscale vicinity approach and stochastic 
                         transition algorithms. Different simulation outputs for the case 
                         study town in the period 1979-1988 were generated, and statistical 
                         validation tests were then conducted for the best results, 
                         employing a multiple resolution fitting procedure. This modelling 
                         experiment revealed the plausibility of adopting Bayesian 
                         empirical methods based on the available infrastructure knowledge 
                         to simulate urban land use change, what implies their further 
                         applicability for generating forecasts of growth trends either for 
                         Brazilian towns or cities worldwide, so as to help planners and 
                         local authorities in achieving sustainability.",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "IHDP_Understanding.PDF",
        urlaccessdate = "12 maio 2024"
}